Price war! PBAT raw material price has fallen below $1,500/ton!
Market Earthquake: PBAT Price Hits Three-Year Low
As of July 2024, the global average spot price of PBAT (polybutylene adipate/terephthalate) was quoted at $1,480/tonne, plummeting 32% from the beginning of the year, and breaking through the psychological barrier of $1,500 for the first time. This price has been close to the industry average cost line of $1,350/ton, marking the biodegradable materials industry has entered a brutal reshuffle stage.
Three major drivers of price dive
Overcapacity: China's new production capacity reaches 2.1 million tons/year (68% of the global share)
Impact of new EU regulations: delayed certification of EN13432 leads to stockpile buildup
Raw material BDO price cuts: price of 1,4-butanediol, the key monomer, cuts to pieces
Capacity Landscape Reconfiguration: Who's Leading the Price War?
China's Top 5 (2024Q2 data)
Company Capacity (t) Cost ($/t) Strategy
Blonde Gold Technology 45 1,310 Share-preserving price cuts
Wanhua Chemical 38 1,290 High-end differentiation
Hengli Petrochemicals 30 1,350 Export subsidies
Tongcheng Xinmai 25 1,410 Switching to PBS
Xinjiang Lanshan 20 1,520 Production cut by 40% already
EU Certification Crisis: $200 Million Orders Pending
Certification Necklace Status
Testing Backlog: TÜV and other organizations have been queuing up samples to be tested for more than 4 months
Pass Rate Plummeting: Only 57% of products meet the standard under the new regulation (82% in 2023)
Financial Pressure: Cost of Single Certification Soars to $15,000 (Including Repeat Testing Fee)
Typical Enterprise Dilemma
Case: Jiangsu an exporter of 2,000 tons of PBAT film due to Certification delays:
Warehousing costs accumulated $85,000
Forced to sell at $1,250/ton (loss of $500,000)
Threat of technology substitution: the PHA downgrade strike
Cost gap closing fast
Indicator PBAT PHA gap
Price ($/tonne) 1,480 3,200 2.16x
Degradation cycle 180 days 90 days -50%
Capacity growth rate +12%/year +45%/year 33pct
Suggestions on Sourcing Strategy: Buyer's Survival Guide
Best Sourcing Window Forecast
Short-term (2024Q3): can hoard at $1,400-1,450 range
Medium-term (2025Q1): may rebound to $1,700+ after implementation of the new EU regulations
Three Principles of Risk Avoidance
Avoid LTA: lock-in period suggested ≤3 months
Certification Bundle: require suppliers to provide pre-certification report
Hedging: BDO futures Hedging ratio is recommended to be 30%.
Industry Reshuffle Forecast: Survivor Characteristics
Types of enterprises expected to survive
Vertical integrators: self-produced BDO (e.g., Wanhua)
Technology leaders: with catalytic modification patents (e.g., Jinfa)
Niche specialists: focusing on medical/high-end film materials
Players about to leave the market
Single production capacity with cost > $1,450/ton
Export-dependent without EU certification
Small and medium-sized modification factories with tight financial chains
ACTION LIST: 180-Day Survival Plan
Must-do for manufacturers
Immediately start cost audit (target <$1,400)
Selectively shut down high-cost production lines
Apply for local government subsidies to stabilize jobs
Trader's countermeasures
Switch to non-certified markets in Southeast Asia
Develop PBAT+PLA composites for hedging
Set up a price early warning system (recommend Platts data source)
For PLA/PBAT biodegradable mat
Price war! PBAT raw material p
PBAT degradation speed increas
From Policy to Practice: Impli
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